The world continues flattening. A friend mentioned that certain corporate leaders are describing places within the U.S. as having cost structures equivalent to the third world, and asked "How long before the Bay Area is priced out of the market?"
In response, I ask: "How long before the market catches up to the Bay Area?"
Google and Yahoo! have offices in Bangalore that are within sight
of each other. Competition for top talent is starting to heat up.
Pretty soon, there'll be an entire generation of programmers with the
learning, skills, AND experience to demand salaries much closer to what
they'd be earning over here.
This will not happen immediately, but it
is happening. And in time --
probably less than a decade -- people trained by "first world" companies
will be running their own startups and competing directly, just like
Google has done after breaking away from Yahoo.
Back here in the superduperpooperpower, obviously people with limited or
obsolete skillsets will be left behind if they don't make some effort to
advance. That happens all the time in the technology-focused fields, and
these days every field seems to be focused more and more on technology.
I'm also guessing (though less certain) that now-American (no matter
where they started) programmers who aren't very creative, or aren't
interested in advancing towards roles like architect, senior/lead
engineer, or product management may also find themselves left behind.
(Note that I am talking almost entirely about tech companies here,
because that's what I know.)
