Other protocols will be used in place of mailing lists, but the lack of a common interface will eventually be noticed and software to translate 'em to e-mail (perhaps on a pull basis) will become popular again. Remember ftpmail?

Many end users, much like the site whitelist enthusiasts, will move towards only accepting e-mail from people they already know. Hotmail's Junk Mail Filter (formerly Inbox Protector) has a feature for this already; messages from people who aren't in your address book get sent to the bulk mail folder. A method for keeping track of friends who change addresses (and auto- magically updating your address book) will be developed, and spammers will quickly find some way to abuse it.

ISP's, especially the free ones, will feel even more pressure to insert stuff into e-mail, or allow specific sites to bypass whitelists. At some point they'll even add pop-ups.

Mounting frustration will lead to greater calls of "Something Must Be Done!"

But since only "experts" will be able to figure out how to open their whitelists and subscribe to a mailing list like this one, few people will be able to discuss solutions or even send out mass eductional updates and rally the masses (as CAUCE has done on occasion), so we'll end up seeing very bad, perhaps even speech-chilling legislation passed.

NONE OF THESE THINGS ARE INEVITABLE, but I do think they're likely. Let me explain why.

This is all happening because of the overwhelming reliance on purely technical methods to stop spam. Seven years ago, we all knew it was just gonna keep escalating -- and now we're at the point where whitelists really are the inevitable next step. The open, free communication that makes the Internet great is about to end.

We have not, however, exhausted all methods -- even if our technical methods have painted us into a corner. Education is still of paramount importance; most users still have no idea why they get spam, and think it's something their ISP approves of somehow...which obviously leads to the conclusion that it must be okay for them to do it, too. Hell, there're still tons of people who think the Internet is owned and run by the US government.

Speaking of which, there's legislation. I can't keep up with the congressional confusion anymore; it makes me really happy to leave all of that to Ray, much as everyone else just leaves it to CAUCE. He's so good at it. But we more people working on this -- active lobbying, etcetera.

I know it's a tired refrain around here, but both education and lobbying are things Spamcon was created to do. So if you aren't gonna pay for MAPS, or even if you are, help Spamcon along. A strong, concerted effort now may forestall the first true death of the net forever.

But it really does have to be now.